Latest Schar School Poll Finds Attorney General Contest Now Neck and Neck After Recent Developments
By: Saahiti Kiran Chamala, Mason Votes Managing Editor
A new statewide poll from the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and The Washington Post shows Virginia’s Attorney General race tightening significantly, with Democrat Jay Jones and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares now virtually tied among likely voters.
The findings mark a shift from earlier surveys that had shown Jones leading, reflecting the volatile nature of statewide races as Election Day approaches.
According to the Schar–Washington Post poll conducted by telephone on October 16–20, 2025, both Jones and Miyares received 46 percent support among likely voters. The survey’s margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points, placing the race within statistical parity.
In late September, the same polling partnership found Jones holding a six-point lead—51 percent to 45 percent—before the release of text messages that became a focal point of political discussion earlier this month. The latest numbers suggest a five-point decline in Jones’s support.
The poll also found that 51 percent of registered voters believe Jones should withdraw from the race, while 41 percent say he should continue his campaign. Despite this, the broader Democratic ticket — including the gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates — remains ahead in their respective contests.
The new results emphasize the competitiveness of Virginia’s statewide elections and the potential volatility among undecided and independent voters. The Attorney General contest remains within the margin of error, meaning either candidate could have a slight advantage depending on turnout and late-breaking voter decisions.
”People deciding not to vote, when they would have voted for Jones otherwise, could be the difference between winning and losing for him.” Schar School Dean Mark J. Rozell told The Washington Post.
Political observers note that such close margins are common in off-year Virginia elections, where turnout tends to be lower and late campaign developments can have a stronger impact.
The poll surveyed a random sample of 927 registered voters across Virginia drawn from the statewide database. It was conducted by researchers at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, in partnership with The Washington Post, continuing a long-standing collaboration on state and regional political research.
This collaboration gives Mason students and faculty a unique role in shaping public understanding of the Commonwealth’s political landscape. The Schar School’s polling program has become a key resource for journalists, policymakers, and voters seeking data-driven insights.
With early voting underway and Election Day approaching, the Attorney General race is expected to remain one of Virginia’s most closely watched contests. Future polling may show whether Jones can regain lost ground or if Miyares will maintain momentum heading into November.
Regardless of shifting numbers, the poll illustrates how quickly campaigns can change course — and how Virginia’s voters continue to play a decisive role in determining the direction of the Commonwealth.
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Slider Photo by: Lathan Goumas/Strategic Communications