Mason Votes

Romney/Obama Stage Foreign Policy Fight in Last Debate

Tonight Mitt Romney and Barack Obama had one last chance to have America’s undivided attention.  Both candidates seemed to know what they needed to do and they kept to their separate strategies.

Romney was clearly trying to move away from prosecutor and toward acting Presidential.   He talked many times about peace and sounded more like a dove on war policy than many had ever heard.  His strategy was clearly to look like a sober, steady hand on the trigger.  To assure nervous undecideds that he can handle the possession of the nuclear launch codes.  He was also in a unique position of having momentum and therefore not really in need of a game changer.  He could sit on the lead he garnered in the first debate.

President Obama, on the other hand, remained aggressive and pushed the issue a number of times with his opponent.  He looked like a guy that was in desperate need of something that would move the needle.  He attacked like a guy who’s behind, because he is.

Many may claim the headline of this debate is the many times Romney agreed with Obama on policy.  I don’t think this should surprise people because these two don’t disagree entirely on foreign policy.  There are certain points of agreement.  Romney chose to attack those key points where the views did not match.  Romney would never attack Obama for killing Osama bin Laden or removing Gaddafi.  He attacked on the President’s apology tour in 2009 and his ‘leading from behind’ strategy instead.

The electoral impact of this debate is still unknown, but I would predict its influence to be small.   The trajectory of these debates was made clear after the first one.  Add in the fact that domestic issues are the dominant topics in 2012 and you have a recipient for a small impact night.

Both men needed to pass the Commander and Chief threshold.  Both men did.  Now that that’s complete, the voters can judge their different views and the temperaments they possess.  It is only the voters that can judge which man can best lead the free world.  That decision will be rendered in just two week’s time.

 *The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author. 

** Photo courtesy of AP

Pre-debate Panel Discussion: The Obama Doctrine vs. The Romney Doctrine

Monday, October 22, Arlington Campus Debate Watch Program, 7:30pm, Founders Hall Auditorium.

The Debate Watch will include a panel discussion.  The panelists will be:

  • Colin Dueck, Associate Professor in George Mason University’s Department of Public and International Affairs
  • Dr. Mark Gopin, Professor of World Religions, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution, and the Director of the Center on World Religions, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution (CRDC) at George Mason University’s School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (S-CAR)
  • Shane Smith,as moderator, Mason Votes Executive Editor

The topic of the discussion will be The Obama doctrine vs. The Romney doctrine of foreign policy.

Colin Dueck, Assoc. Prof, GMU Dept. of Public Policy
Colin Dueck, Assoc. Prof, GMU Dept. of Public Policy
Dr. Marc Gopin, GMU School of Conflict Analysis & Resolution
Dr. Marc Gopin, GMU School of Conflict Analysis & Resolution

 

Final Presidential Debate Tonight

Tonight is the third and final Presidential debate of the 2012 election cycle.  The debate will be emanating from Boca Raton, Florida and will focus on foreign policy.

After the scuffle the two candidates had in the last debate over Libya and the September 11th assassination of United States Ambassador Chris Stevens, look for a longer and more pointed discussion of the events that took place and the Obama Administration’s rhetoric after the attack.

Also bound to come up is the topic of the Arab Spring in general.  What is America’s role in these uprisings?  How does America balance its values with its security?   The President made a highly publicized speech to the Muslim world in Cairo in 2009.  Expect Mitt Romney to hold the President to much of what he said back then.  Also look for President Obama to ding Romney on his own missteps with foreign affairs.  For example, his big overseas trip gaffes and his premature statement on the consulate attacks.

The topic of Iran and their nuclear program is a reoccurring topic for about a decade and is likely be broached tonight.  Expect Obama to tout new sanctions placed on Iran and expect Romney to attack Obama for not standing shoulder to shoulder with Israel on this issue.

Finally, the topic of China is one that is broad and deserves some time in this debate.  Part of Romney’s economic plan is to crack down on China’s trade cheating so he is sure to mention that.  Obama will likely cite his administration’s actions to curb China’s defense hacking into American infrastructure.

In terms of impact, foreign policy isn’t a large driver of votes either way.  Unless either candidate makes a massive gaffe or misstep, expect a fairly tame debate with little polling changes.  However for the policy wonks, debates like this provide a unique opportunity for the candidates to articulate how they will act as America’s representative on the world stage.

Third Presidential Debate Watch Party Tonight

Tonight at 9 p.m. Mason Votes will be hosting the third presidential debate watch party in the JC Atrium. All students, faculty, and staff are welcome to attend. Leading up to the election it is important for all voters to stay tuned into the debates.

Mason Votes hopes these debate watch parties will help students become aware of the issues, get educated on where each candidate stands, and encourage students to vote on November 6, 2012.

More information about the debate is provided on the 2012 Presidential Election News website:

Topic: Foreign policy
Air Time: 9:00-10:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Location: Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida

Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates

Participants: President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney
Moderator: Bob Schieffer (Host of Face the Nation on CBS)

The format for the debate will be identical to the first presidential debate and will focus on foreign policy.

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2012-presidential-debate-schedule/

 

Electoral College Analysis (10/22/2012)

Just 15 days remain until Election Day, and the race to gain 270 electoral votes has shifted since our last analysis.  Back 12 days ago, the key states to watch were Florida, Virginia, and Ohio.  If Romney were to win all three he would be just 4 votes short of winning the Presidency.  If Obama were to pick off two out of the three, he would clinch a second term.

The newest movement indicates that the state of Florida has begun to fade out of Obama’s reach.  With that big prize presumably red, the biggest and most predictive state left up for grabs is Ohio.  An Obama win in Ohio leaves Romney with very few options with which to secure 270.  A Romney win there means he comes within two states of winning.  The state of Virginia is the next most critical.  The same rule applies here that applied to Ohio.  These are ‘do or die’ states for both campaigns.

If a split were to occur within those two states, the race may end up being decided out west.  The two swing states out there are Nevada and Colorado.  Both Obama states in 2008, polls here are within the margin of error.

Another interesting turn of events is the obscure rule in the state of Maine.  People may recall that in 2008, Obama won a single electoral vote from Nebraska because the city of Omaha proportioned their vote by congressional district.  The same rule applies to Maine and Romney is leading in one of those districts.  Romney has a chance to pick one vote off of a secure Obama state like Maine.

What’s amazing to think about is a projection where Romney wins Ohio, Obama wins Virginia, and the two western states go Romney.  Give Romney that single vote from Maine and the score is 269-269.  It would be the first Electoral College tie in almost 200 years.  In such a scenario, it would be the House of Representatives that would decide the election.  They would caucus by state and the candidate that received 26 or more state votes would be elected.  Under such a scenario, most analyses have showed Romney would win in the GOP controlled House.  The Senate would decide the Vice President.  Which could actually vote for Joe Biden if the Democrats still control the chamber.  It is conceivable that Biden could remain VP while Romney wins the Presidency.

But that is still a long shot.  What’s vastly more likely is one candidate winning outright.  But for that to happen, the states of Ohio and Virginia will take center stage.

A Second Presidential Visit to GMU Yields No Change

President Barack Obama held a campaign event at George Mason University Friday, marking his second visit to GMU this month.  Mason Votes was there to cover all angles of his visit. His remarks pleased the partisan crowd, but I doubt they will do much to persuade independents or undecided voters with less than three weeks left in the race.

Obama began by calling Mitt Romney’s five-point plan to create 12 million jobs, “a sketchy deal” and quoted the New York Times’ opinion that it was a “snow job on the American people.”  Obama said that Romney’s plan really only has one point, “that those at the very top play by a different set of rules.”

Now with rhetoric like that, you might think Romney’s plan only cuts taxes for the rich.  You may think Romney really wants to stick it to the middle class.  In reality, the only person shoveling anything is Barack Obama, and it isn’t snow.  Romney has campaigned on a 20% tax cut across the board and then capping the number of deductions and exemptions the rich can take.  This would assure that the rich still paid the same share of the tax burden, while lowering the rate for the vast majority of Americans.  So Obama has set up and has been consistently attacking a Romney straw man argument.  He ridicules the tax plan he wants Romney to have, not the one he actually has.

The President did have one new attack line for this rally.  He coined the term, “Romnesia”.  Obama claimed that Romney had been avoiding his prior positions and thus called it a “condition he’s going through”.  That ended up being the big headline out of the rally, Obama’s clever new attack line.

Beyond that term’s small dose of immaturity, what’s more striking is what the speech generally left until the very end, his actual second term agenda.  He ran down a litany of points at the end of his remarks.  The term I caught on to was “invest”.  Obama said he’s going to “invest” in education, clean energy, roads, etc.  What he won’t tell you is that when he says he will “invest”, it means you will have to pay.  And there are not enough rich people in America for him to tax in order to balance that equation.  He attacks Romney for not having specifics, but he never has told the American people how he’ll pay for all these new “investments”.  The answer isn’t hard to discern.  What he’ll do in a second term is exactly what he did in his first, which is put it on our children’s credit card in the form of debt.  If Barack Obama is reelected, the national debt will hit $20 trillion, guaranteed.

In the end, the Obama campaign needs boosted turnout among his voters in Northern Virginia to offset the Romney vote down south.  That’s why he is mobilizing the largest college in NoVa in person, twice.  But he can come a dozen times and it still won’t change the fact that there are 23 million unemployed Americans being ignored by his campaign rhetoric.  Higher gas and food prices being ignored.  The lowest household income and take-home pay in a decade is being ignored.  Those are issues central to this campaign, and it’s why Obama is in trouble and in real danger of being the first President in 20 years to not win a second term.

 *The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author. 

** Photo by Curtis Kalin.

President Obama Returns to Mason and Talks Women’s Issues

For the second time in less than a month President Barack Obama held a grassroots rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. The President talked jobs and the economy, but spent a majority of his stump speech talking about women’s issues. He also debuted a new line of attack against Mitt Romney for his change in position on many issues especially women’s health issues.

[youtube]http://youtu.be/Fi73Nz9Ozk4[/youtube]

 

President Obama’s full remarks:

[youtube]http://youtu.be/48BmtinOSl4[/youtube]

 

Mason Votes 1-on-1 with Cecile Richards

Mason Votes caught up with Cecile Richards, President of Planned Parenthood, after President Obama’s grassroots rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.

[youtube]http://youtu.be/na60mZPBY6U[/youtube]

VA Senate Candidates Debate Last Time

Virginia Senate candidates George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) faced each other for their fifth and final debate this 2012 election season October 18, 2012 at the Haymarket Theater in the Virginia Tech Squires Student Center.

View the entire debate here: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/308845-1

Former Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, left, and former Sen. George Allen, right, shake hands prior to a debate at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Thursday, Oct. 18, 2012. (Steve Helber | The Associated Press)

Stein Gets Arrested

Photo by: Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnam1yi5bVs[/youtube]

A video of the Green Party’s Presidential Candidate, Jill Stein and her running mate, Cheri Honkala being arrested as they attempted to enter the grounds of the Presidential Debate on Tuesday, has gone viral.

Stein, along with the other third party candidates were not permitted to participate in the event, organized by the Council of Presidential Debates.  The CPD’s rules dictate that only nominees with an average of at least 15% of support in 5 chosen, national polls are allowed to enter the debate.

In protest to being barred from participating, Stein and Honkala held a press conference near Hofstra University, where the presidential nominee stated, “we are here to bring the courage of those excluded from our politics to this mock debate, this mockery of democracy.”  After which they began proceeding to the debate hall, but were met by local police, who would not them in.  Though they refused to leave the premise and were consequentially arrested for blocking traffic.  They were not released for 8 hours.

This is not Stein’s first attempt to be included in the debates.  She has petitioned the CPD to allow all of the candidates who have “demonstrated minimal level of support,” to join. She received over 14,000 signatures.

Stein, along with third party candidates, Virgil Goode, Rocky Anderson and Gary Johnson, will be debating each other on Tuesday night at 8 PM.  It is going to be moderated by former CNN host Larry King and streamed on Ora.tv and YouTube.