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Electoral College Analysis: Six Days Out

With just 6 days until Americans go to the polls, the electoral map is more congested and confusing than ever.  Polls are all over the place and the race seems to be tightening everywhere.  Let’s go through it.

Using the map from Real Clear Politics, there are 11 “toss up” states.  That distinction is given to states where the polling is +/- 5 points.  The electoral vote with out the 11 toss-ups is 201-191 Obama.  But in order to really attempt to predict anything, I’m going to put some of these states as leaners for Obama and Romney.

States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada seem pretty set as leaning towards Obama.  Romney seems to have a significant, albeit significant lead in North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia.  After allotting those votes, the race remains tight with Obama leading Romney 253-248.

There are 4 states left that are pure toss-ups.  Obama and Romney are within a single point of each other in New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio.  Just 37 electoral votes are between these states.  However, taking nothing away from New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado; the state of Ohio really is the lynchpin of this election for both sides.  It’s 18 electoral votes would put Obama over 270 if he were to win it, and would put Romney just 4 votes short if he were to pull it out.

Many people may pontificate on TV about how they know exactly what will happen in Ohio or anywhere else, but this race is truly one that is too close to call.  The polling is simply too erratic and the margins just too close together.  It’s hard to believe that either candidate will pull away in the final days.  What’s more likely is that the race will be a turnout matchup.  Which side can get more of their side to the polls.  Most independents have made up their minds, and those that haven’t historically split anyway.  The winner of the Presidency on November 6 will be the team that can motivate their respective supporters to brave the weather and vote.  Down the final stretch, that’s where you can expect the focus to be.

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About Curtis Kalin

Student at George Mason University, Conservative Political Writer, Worked on Capitol Hill, St. Louis native and sports fan.

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